Warnings & Advisories Across the Northeast & Middle Atlantic States High Wind Warning Southe
Redevelopment Secondary Low Key To Snow Forecast
Everything regarding this coastal storm seems to be coming into line here regarding rain wind and coastal flooding The snow question remains wide open at the moment. It hinges on the redevelopment of the coastal low and how fast does the energy from the primary low transfer to the secondary. The reason why the NAM model continues to come in colder and snowier than the other models along the coast is the transfer of energy on the NAM occurs faster than the other models. The faster the secondary develops the better the chance for cold air to drain southward on the west side as the upper air dynamics swing into play. We won't know until it happens so we will just watch and wait. In the meantime the satellite loop shows clouds from the primary low increasing rapidly as all this energy begins to swing toward the Delaware/ New Jersey coast. Radars are starting to load up the rain to the north represents the rain from the primary low as it moves east. To the south of that across Virginia and North Carolina is the rain from the beginnings of the secondary low. Both areas are moving quickly to the east. Look for rain to develop from west to east over the next 3 or 4 hours. Then it rains all night into Friday morning. Then the games begin regarding the change over to snow. The late afternoon NAM model and the short range HRRR models are lined up almost the same. The NAM continues to paint an aggressive snow picture inland and puts the coast at risk for some slushy accumulations
Coastal flooding at high tide is likely. Tides will run up to 3 feet above normal with moderate coastal flooding likely on long island and minor to moderate coastal flooding expected for New Jersey. Tides will likely be a problem right through the weekend with this storm remaining offshore for the next several days. Precipitation should come to an end overnight into Saturday morning with weather conditions improving during Saturday though it will still remain windy. Sunshine and chilly conditions are forecast for Sunday.