Foureaster Knocking On The Door Next Week. Big Snows For Somebody

South Central Pennsylvania & North Central Maryland have spent much of the winter in a snow hole with above normal snowfall to the north and east and to the south and west but below average snowfall for this area. Snow has cheated this area in the first 3 noreasters. Now we look ahead to number 4.

I think at this point it is fairly safe to say that we will be dealing with another coastal storm next week beginning late Tuesday. It looks to be a long duration event as it could last into Wednesday night or early Thursday morning which would mean a prolonged period of northeast winds (coastal flooding). From the standpoint of strength (pressure) this storm won't be crazy strong but the pressure gradient will tighten some so it will be windy along the coast. From the standpoint of precipitation type that looks to be anyone's guess. Rain or snow or possibly both. However as far as nailing down anything really specific it is way too soon. There are too many moving pieces to this puzzle and models are going to change some more over the weekend.

The jet stream profile Tuesday evening on the European model illustrates the dilemma here in figuring out any sort of specifics. You have the blocky nature of the pattern which is not super strong but strong enough with a low at 50N 50W. This forces a broad trough to develop to our west but as the red lines show there are multiple short waves here and they keep interacting with each other differently with every model run. All the models have a coastal low to our south.



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