After digesting everything this afternoon with regards to all the models, satellite, radars and whatever I could get my hands on, let us take you through what is going to be happening with the first system for Thursday night into Friday and then address the second stronger storm for the weekend. The most important development to focus on is that weather models remain on course for the most part. Yes we have usual models vasalating back and forth but it doesn't really change where we are headed with all this.
The next cold front is moving through and we can see snow showers on the regional radar in what looks almost like a summer line of showers moving southeast. That should all fall apart before it gets here. We will clear out tonight and temperatures will drop into the teens to mid 20s by morning. Clouds will arrive and thicken up. The first system is fairly straight forward. There will be some precipitation with it that will produce a coating to a couple of inches for most areas beginning Thursday night (after the evening commute is done) and the ending around the time of the morning commute on Friday. Temperatures on Thursday will top in the upper 20s to lower 30s and then probably hold there. Some rain could get involved along the coast which might keep some areas wet more than white. The best approach is to cover for up to an inch or two and then the system moves out and weather conditions improve on Friday. Some sun should develop in the afternoon with highs reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Colder air comes back in Friday night as high pressure builds actoss the northern Great Lakes and Southeastern Canada. We will see clear skies Friday night with lows in the 20s, teens in cold spots. Then Saturday we cloud up with highs in the 20s to around or just barely over 30. Snow arrives Saturday night after sunset.
The NAM and the European model seem to be in lockstep here keeping the low further south as it responds to the northern jet streaming keeping cold hold in place longer than the other models. This seems to make more sense to me given the upper air pattern overall. This probably will allow for a front end thump of snow to develop Saturday night. Warm air is going to push northward and the snow will likely change to sleet and then rain but that snow sleet rain line will only get so far north before it collapses back southward Sunday afternoon. Some areas will see precipitation go back and forth for while. Once the low moves offshore bitter cold air on northerly winds will begin to sweep in cold air. As far as snow totals are concerned this going to be very difficult to figure until we can figure out the timing of any change over in both directions. The common thread for all is that once precipitation ends late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening, temperatures will plummet and everything will freeze up. Monday morning temperatures will be in the single digits to low teens. Some areas in the Hudson Valley and in Connecticut could see readings drop to below zero Monday morning.