Snow Forecast Sunday Night Monday Morning 2/17-18/2019
We have been watching the development of the pattern over the weekend into next week. The first system passes to the south Saturday and is of no consequence here. The second coming out of the deep trough in the west makes its way here for Sunday night into Monday morning. We will have border line cold air around. The system looks to be on the weak side. If the temperatures are a degree or two colder than modeled we could see a little bit of upside here but not much. It would be a matter of moving the lines down a little further south.
There really isn't a whole lot of room here for the first system to do much more other than what is being advertised here. The system is moving into what is primarily a ridge position in the Eastern US. A couple of tenths of liquid precipitation is all that is being generated by the models and this doesn't seem unreasonable. Snow or a mix (to the south of the light blue line) comes in Sunday evening and is mostly done by morning. A weak primary moves to SW Pennsylvania and then a second weak secondary forms off the Delaware coast and just skidaddles out to the northeast and goodbye.
Today's over amped model award goes to the European which takes a primary northward toward the Great Lakes with a weak secondary development along the coast into a big high in Southern Quebec (sound familiar?). This sets up almost like last week. The European has a colder look to things along the East Coast with the model generating its usual snowstorm 5-7 days out. We are still waiting for one of these to come out right. This system plays out much the same way as the one back on Tuesday in my view. The upper pattern is the same. Trough west/ridge east. The Pacific will provide a surge of warm air into all of this. Perhaps this time the low levels will be a bit colder and maybe a more solid thump of snow results from this. It's 5 days away so we view this with the highest amount of skepticism at this stage. It is hard to find anything that much different this time that makes the outcome any different. Prove it to me is my attitude here.