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Severe Weather Risk Flash Flood Watch

After last night's severe weather outbreak it has brought heavy rains in many areas. We are at the point now that any additional severe weather (and there will be additional severe weather) will bring flash flooding quickly so we have a flood watch in effect for much of New Jersey & Pennsylvania. This area was hit hard by severe weather with numerous tornado & severe thunderstorm warnings last night and is likely to get hit hard again tonight.

We are seeing a similar set up to yesterday with a buckling frontal boundary that lies across Northern New Jersey to Long Island. To the south of that boundary line we are see sunshine breaking out across Central and Southern New Jersey where highs today will reach the 80s to near 90. To the northeast we will be watching the warm front to see how far north it gets and how much destabilization of the atmosphere occurs. The risk area extends further north and east today verses yesterday and includes much of Long Island, Southern New England and the Hudson Valley. New Jersey & Pennsylvania look to be the battle ground for a widespread outbreak.

Examining weather models show uniformity in thunderstorms impacting the entire area. The HRRR and the NAM model are almost in lock step with a solid line of severe thunderstorms moving through in a linear fashion between 4pm and 8pm. This is going to be a very stormy evening commute.

Check out the latest HRRR model view on thunderstorms tonight along with a look at what could be another severe weather threat on Thursday. Also a look for Friday and the weekend as this post continues at METEOROLOGISTJOECIOFFI.COM

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