A wave of low pressure is offshore and moving away to the northeast offshore but left behind is a very warm and humid tropical aiSt r mass and we are seeing some heavy thunderstorms blowing up in some places this afternoon and evening. They are not widespread so clearly not everyone is going to get involved in some of these heavier cells but bear in mind that they can produce a couple of inches of rain in 10 to 15 minutes which will trigger some flash flooding issues.
All of this winds down this evening with a warm and very humid night to follow. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s in most places. Then it is on to a hot and humid Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and a very good chance for thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has elevated the risk for Wednesday to slight risk which we figured they would do.
While there could be some renegade thunderstorms that form during the afternoon the main line comes in during the late afternoon and evening from west to east. The Nam model over the last few days has been rather bullish on the possibility of some strong cells as the front nears the coast. Today's models support the idea again. Daytime heating is key tomorrow so we will watch to see how much sunshine and how hot it gets Wednesday afternoon.
As far as how the severe weather breaks for later Wednesday you can read more about this and the rest of the week as well as a very nice humidity of sunshine and low humidity Read more at Meteorologistjoecioffi.com