S&S Official Winter Outlook for Winter 2017/18.
Issued October 8, 2017 @5PM.
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Disclaimer: This is an outlook and not a forecast. Many variables can change this outlook in either direction. As always, stay tuned to future forecasts and predictions as events near and always follow the National Weather Service watches and warnings.
As of October 2017, we remain in a very active pattern with the tropics. We believe this will play an active roll in future storm development and pattern changes.
Switching gears from fall to winter cold:
We believe while the fall in the Mid-Atlantic has been and was expected to be above average in temps, there will be a quick change in seasons that will come as a shock to many. While we are used to fairly warm weather currently, sometime in November things will switch to very seasonable cold temperatures quickly and LOCK IN.
THE VERDICT IS IN: So what does this all mean for winter?
For the Mid-Atlantic area, we believe a rapid pattern change to cold temperatures along with an active storm track will give many an above to way above average winter. The exception may be the coast, where an average winter is likely; however, we cannot rule out 1/2 major snow events. Our precipitation map refers to events as SNOW EVENTS. This means we have not taken into account slop and ice events that would cause insult to injury. In short, we do expect slightly below average temps and above average ACTIVE STORM SYSTEMS.
Some side thoughts:
We believe there’s a 30-40% chance for flurries or light snow on or very close to Christmas. Obviously this is far out and many factors will play into this as we get closer. This is pure speculation and based on past winters and assuming that our time is due for a White Christmas.
On average, winter in South Central PA and Northern Maryland consists of December, January, February and the first two weeks of March. Yes, things can vary but this is our best chance at accumulating snow. With an active pattern as predicted, one should expect closings and delays as well as plan for higher budgets for heating and snow removal. Again, things can change and make this prediction colder and snowier or warmer and dryer. However, at this time, this is our belief. 10/17
This Winter Outlook is based on multiple data and is by no means a guarantee. Things can change and cause this outlook to need to be revised as we get closer to December. We will update things if need be in December. To find out the average snowfall for your city or town please do a Google search and add about 35% to the average. It only takes one good snowfall to get us to our average or very close. Rather than talk amounts this year, we decided we would show how active the season will likely be as that affects people’s lives more.
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Please stay tuned to future updates and again always follow National Weather Service watches, warnings, and advisories. Thank you for being the most awesome part of S&S Storm Chase Team, a proud member of Community 106.1 WYCO FM York, PA. Hear us daily every hour!
TeamSS-LLC 2017 Winter Outlook 17/18